FILMMAKING STUFF Filmmaking Stuff is a resource for independent filmmakers, including articles on independent film finance, screenwriting, production, movie marketing and film distribution, as well as interviews with Hollywood producers, movie directors, screenwriters and other filmmakers.

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Over the holiday season, I spent some time back east with family and friends.

Aside from shoveling snow and fighting the cold winter in Pennsylvania, getting outside of Hollywood for a few weeks provides a time of relaxation and reflection. And at the same time, spending time with friends and family almost always reveals coming trends in the movie industry.

Let me explain.

Based on some popular entertainment oriented Christmas gifts, it’s evident that changes in the movie industry are upon us. Thanks to VOD innovations like the the Roku HD Player and some new television sets that directly link to the internet, I predict that 2010 will be the beginning of the end for movie rental kiosks, movie rental stores and as a result, studios will experience further decline in physical DVD sales (including Blue Ray.)

While my prediction may be a little ahead of the curve, I think it’s important to prepare your movie business accordingly. These innovations (over time) will eliminate traditional, physical movie sales channels – Diminished revenue may result in less production and you might experience a decrease in movie production work.

Conversely, streaming, down-loadable movies on demand will also create a enormous opportunity for filmmakers wishing to reach the global masses without asking permission. For the right producer, this is an exciting time!

But in order to profit from these innovations, let’s analyze the ripple effect. Here are some things we might expect:

5 (possible) PREDICTABLE movie business DECLINES

1. Decline in traditional home video channels (video rental business, video delivery business and home video purchases will decline.)
2. Decline in traditional hardware like DVD Players and Blue Ray Players.
3. Decline for dub houses, DVD manufactures and DVD shipping boxes.
4. Less pre-sale predictability. Tell your investors that you’ll put the movie on iTunes and then try to project potential revenue. Have fun.
5. Less investor cash means there will be two motion picture tiers for your day rate: micro budget features and mid-to-high budget studio features (with theatrical outlets for distribution.) Budget ranges in-between are becoming increasingly too risky to finance.

7 (possible) PREDICTABLE movie business OPPORTUNITIES

1. Providers of VOD and digital down-loadable content will increase.
2. Innovations in hardware (TV Sets, Roku Devices and TiVo type products) will increase.
3. Instead of getting your day rate, more professionals will be forced to take back end points. (This is the movie making equivalent to getting start-up stock options.)
4. State movie production tax incentives will influence production of higher budget pictures.
5. Distribution channels will be many. Look for more and more indie production companies to create in-house marketing arms and PR firms to promote movies across the globe.
6. Additionally, movie internet marketing experts will become an asset to your production. (OK – a little self serving. But after successfully producing and marketing one of our movies on the internet, this is something I’m passionate about.)
7. This is totally optimistic: but we might also expect more outlets for TV content. HDTV accessible website will spring up where you’ll post your content, build a VOD following and leverage your following to increase targeted advertising revenue. (Check out Hulu.com for an example.)

Great. What does this mean for you?

Save your money! Speak with a financial adviser and learn how you can make a financial plan for your future. Seriously. Learn how to make your money work for you. Then -

If you want to produce movies: these industry changes mean you should cultivate relationships with “name” actors and join forces with all the folks you’ve been working with for years and years. Start to create your own micro-budget projects and get super creative on the financing end. Find folks with equipment. Work out deals and see if you can pay in both up-front money and back-end points.

Additionally, if you go this route, you should become friends with movie producer marketers, PR professionals and sales consultants who have successfully sold movies over the net. These folks will help you create a plan for ROI – And while nothing is guaranteed, if you can create 5-7 movies in your career that supply your bank account with cash each month, it’s a nice place to be.

If you make money working as a freelancer – you may have to change some of your focus (as is very common) to television commercial work, corporate video work and high-end music video work. These avenues seem to have more frequent production instances… And you don’t have to give up months for money.

Surviving the Movie Industry in times of change is similar to surviving other industries going through change. Necessitated by the need for cash (survival), many of you will be forced to see the world as an entrepreneur. Even if you aren’t ready, you may have to learn how to produce your own profitable movies.

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Posted under Power

If you’ve made a movie or you’re working to make your movie (and I hope you are), you might also be thinking about how you’re going to sell the sucker.

I mean, despite the fact that filmmaking is fun there is a business component to it. If you fail to think in terms of Return On Investment (ROI), then getting money for your next movie is going to be even more difficult than the first, for two reasons:

1. You’ll need to worry about money to put food on the table.
2. Your prospective investors will want to see your track record.

As a filmmaker, the other factor we have to consider is our initial budget. Go too high and the chance of return could diminish. Let me explain.

I’ve chatted with a few heavy-hitting friends in the industry (that I hope to interview soon) and there is talk about what I’m going to call the “no-man’s-land” of indie movie production. That is, there is a budget range from roughly 2.5M-10M that is becoming increasingly difficult to finance.

Tax credits and other deals aside – What I’m suggesting is due, in large part to changes in movie distribution and the subsequent challenge of generating enough revenue to recoup the initial investment.

Indie film financing was always a crap shoot – but take away potential sales channels and add the fact that technology now permits virtually anyone to make a decent looking movie and you can begin to understand why this is happening.

While I’m on the subject, I’m not just talking about the indie movies. I’m including studios as well. Thanks to the success of Paranormal Activity,  there is now word that Paramount is going to launch a micro budget division and begin to churn out movies under 100K.

From a business standpoint this makes sense. You invest 100K and you get 100M – That’s pretty good! (Understatement).  But from holy crap perspective, the ripple effect of a studio churning out no-to-low budget movies could potentially rip a hole in the ways Hollywood traditionally operates. (BTW, Paramount is not the first studio to attempt this. But thanks to VOD outlets and more digital projectors in theaters, what didn’t work at this budget level in the past could very well work now.)

Lets talk some numbers…

Traditionally, when movies are financed most people including grips, gaffers, craft services and other crew – they get paid on the front end as part of the movie’s budget. We can also include some agents, managers, lawyers, Teamsters, writers, actors – and mostly everyone else too.

On the micro budget level however, there isn’t enough money up-front to pay these folks what they were formally worth. So there are a few options. Hire less people. Hire non-union folks. And offer to pay Teamsters deferred pay with the added bonus of copy and credit. (I’m adding some humor here – but can you imagine Paramount trying to offer a Teamster deferred pay?)

Ok, so what does this mean for you and your movies? Well just look at the music industry. Recording studios and record companies took a nose dive. But that hasn’t stopped people from making music or making money making music.

Instead of asking some idiot in a suit for permission to make music, musicians can now find their audiences, build a following and sell their music… Without a middle man – globally. That’s pretty amazing.

The same wide open world applies to your movie. Do good work and people will notice. Do bad work, and well, you still have the opportunity to find the 20 people in the world who think you’re brilliant. And in terms of pay structure – I made a joke earlier about deferred pay. But I am not totally opposed to some well structured back end deals. I mean, 1/4th of 1% of 100M is – it’s nothing to sneeze at.

Of course, as we all know there is no guarantee that any movie project will make money. So for you and me and most indies, it will take roughly two years of hustle to churn out a movie that we can be proud of. For the studios, they are going to churn out micro-budget movies like widgets in a factory.  The odds of success, for both of us  – the indie filmmakers and the studio are getting closer equal.

And I think that is something worth celebrating.

Is anyone else excited about this? Please feel free to comment.

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Posted under Sell Your Movie